Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4081
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4081 · PHX → SAT
departs 7:55 AM MT · arrives 12:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 1.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.