Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4087
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4087 · PHX → OKC
departs 7:35 PM MT · arrives 11:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 45%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.