WN 408 · BUF → MDW

departs 2:21 PM ET · arrives 3:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at BUF that day

↑ 2pm departures from BUF are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.23 in

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 408 · BUF → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?