WN 408 · TPA → BUF

departs 11:01 AM ET · arrives 1:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.45 in

BUF (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 408 · TPA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?