WN 409 · BNA → ECP

departs 11:46 AM CT · arrives 1:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from BNA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 409 · BNA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?