Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4103 · MDW → PNS
departs 7:45 AM CT · arrives 10:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 19%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PNS
↑
PNS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PNS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
PNS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.