Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4107
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4107 · PHX → SNA
departs 9:10 PM MT · arrives 10:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.