Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4109 · LAS → HNL
departs 9:15 AM PT · arrives 12:40 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Wed 9/30 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.