Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4111
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4111 · SAN → LAS
departs 4:25 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.