WN 4112 · STL → PHX

departs 2:06 PM CT · arrives 3:24 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling967 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.32 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4112 · STL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?