Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4120
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4120 · RSW → MDW
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 8%
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 44 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 44 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.79 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.