Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4125
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4125 · SBA → DEN
departs 6:05 AM PT · arrives 9:20 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 9%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SBA that day
↑
Other factors
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SBA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.