Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4129
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4129 · DAL → PHX
departs 3:20 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.73 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.