Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4131 · DEN → SNA
departs 2:55 PM MT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.