WN 4132 · STS → BUR

departs 11:01 AM PT · arrives 12:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at STS that day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ 11am departures from STS are usually not late

Weather at each end

STS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4132 · STS → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?