WN 4140 · TPA → AUS

departs 10:16 AM ET · arrives 11:53 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +26 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4140 · TPA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?