Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4144
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4144 · MDW → SEA
departs 10:00 PM CT · arrives 12:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 22%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±0 pts
+26 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
76%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
76%
Yes 76%
No 24%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.69 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.