Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4146 · AUS → MCO
departs 5:20 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 3%
Sun 10/4 2%
Mon 10/5 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.94 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.