Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4160
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4160 · LAS → OKC
departs 9:05 PM PT · arrives 1:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.