Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4163
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4163 · SAN → MDW
departs 12:10 PM PT · arrives 6:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±5 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.