WN 4166 · TPA → DEN

departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4166 · TPA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?