WN 4169 · TPA → HOU

departs 12:56 PM ET · arrives 2:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts +32 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

HOU (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.73 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4169 · TPA → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?