WN 416 · AUS → SAN

departs 1:41 PM CT · arrives 2:47 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 416 · AUS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?