WN 4176 · TPA → MCI

departs 4:21 PM ET · arrives 6:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

MCI (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4176 · TPA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?