Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4177 · DTW → LAS
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 21%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.16 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.