Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4177 · STL → DTW
departs 9:55 AM CT · arrives 12:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −25 pts in 24h
−25 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −31 pts in 24h
−31 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.