WN 4187 · LGA → DAL

departs 10:27 AM ET · arrives 12:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip3.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4187 · LGA → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?