Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4189
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4189 · MDW → PHX
departs 11:20 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
11am departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.58 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.