WN 4194 · TPA → SAT

departs 5:06 PM ET · arrives 6:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4194 · TPA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?