Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4196 · STL → DAL
departs 9:45 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −32 pts in 24h
−32 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,420 ft Visibility 4.4 mi Precip 0.12 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.