WN 4197 · TPA → STL

departs 6:16 AM ET · arrives 7:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into STL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4197 · TPA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?