Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4198 · OAK → SLC
departs 9:30 AM PT · arrives 12:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
OAK is prone to delays
↓
9am departures from OAK are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.