Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4199
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4199 · OAK → PSP
departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 3:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PSP?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from OAK are often late
↑
PSP is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
PSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.