Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4201
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4201 · OKC → PHX
departs 7:05 AM CT · arrives 7:25 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6.66667 mi Precip 1.17 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.