Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4220
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4220 · BWI → MYR
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 28%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MYR more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MYR?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
MYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MYR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.