WN 4228 · TPA → PIT

departs 4:41 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

PIT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4228 · TPA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?