WN 4239 · CMH → PHX

departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 7:05 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4239 · CMH → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?