Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4242
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4242 · SFO → SAN
departs 2:00 PM PT · arrives 3:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 31%
Fri 10/9 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 57% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.