Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 424 · BUR → STS
departs 1:50 PM PT · arrives 3:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from BUR are often late
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at STS that day
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.