Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4256
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4256 · COS → PHX
departs 6:45 AM MT · arrives 7:35 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3 3%
Sun 10/4 3%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 38 kt forecast at COS that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from COS are usually not late
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 38 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.12 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.