Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4260
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4260 · LAS → ELP
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 8:30 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±7 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.