Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4273
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4273 · PHX → GEG
departs 10:50 PM MT · arrives 1:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 25%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.