WN 427 · AUS → SMF

departs 7:31 PM CT · arrives 9:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 2.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 7pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

SMF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 427 · AUS → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?