WN 4280 · MDW → OAK

departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 12:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ MDW is prone to delays

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4280 · MDW → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?