Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4284
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4284 · SFO → DEN
departs 10:00 AM PT · arrives 1:30 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 18%
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 58% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.