WN 4290 · MDW → BDL

departs 6:46 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BDL that day

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

BDL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4290 · MDW → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?