WN 4291 · RDU → MDW

departs 7:21 PM ET · arrives 8:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4291 · RDU → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?