WN 4292 · LAS → SBA

departs 9:11 AM PT · arrives 10:38 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4292 · LAS → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?