Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4293
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4293 · SMF → SAN
departs 6:45 PM PT · arrives 8:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 60%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.