WN 4295 · SAT → BWI

departs 4:56 PM CT · arrives 9:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip3.96 in

BWI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4295 · SAT → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?